President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have been actively engaging with Black voters across the United States, including at a recent rally in Pennsylvania. The event highlighted legislative efforts aimed at aiding the Black community, such as lowering insulin costs for the elderly and combating gun violence. During the rally, Biden emphasized the crucial support Black voters provided during his 2020 election and sought their backing again to secure a victory over Donald Trump in the upcoming November election.
Despite these efforts, there is growing concern among Black voters regarding Biden’s ability to meet their needs effectively. Trump’s campaign has been gaining traction within this demographic, potentially diminishing Biden’s earlier support. Biden has been addressing these challenges by speaking at prominent Black venues, like a recent one in Georgia, to reinforce the administration’s dedication to engaging with Black voters. A the Pennsylvania rally, state legislator Napoleon Nelson pointed out the urgency for rapid and substantial changes to enhance living conditions in Black communities, emphasizing that decisive action is now more crucial than ever to maintain voter enthusiasm and support.
The influence of Black voters is anticipated to be pivotal in determining the outcome of the next presidential election. Recently, Trump posted a CNN video on Instagram highlighting his unprecedented support among Black voters for a Republican candidate. This development has raised alarms within Biden’s campaign, especially considering the vital role Black voters played in his 2020 victory over then-President Donald Trump. With concerns mounting over rising inflation and escalating living costs, Black voters are increasingly uncertain whether the Biden administration can effectively address these pressing issues.
Trump is leading the race in Pennsylvania
According to recent data from AdImpact, $71.3 million has been spent on campaign advertisements for the 2024 election to date. Of this, Democrats have contributed $49.2 million, while Republicans have spent $22.1 million. Notably, 30% of this spending has been directed at voters in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is currently a battleground state with a slight trend towards former President Donald Trump, who leads President Joe Biden by 2.3 points, based on the RealClearPolitics average of state polls. This lead was reinforced by a recent Cook Political Report poll, which placed Trump ahead by 3 points.
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Biden has failed to regain the 2020 support in the state for months
Except for a few instances, such as a brief period in February when Biden led by 1.4 points, Trump has consistently held a slight advantage in Pennsylvania according to RealClearPolitics. Removing data from the more liberal-leaning pollster Susquehanna would negate even these occasional leads for Biden. The Biden campaign is particularly concerned about the results in Pennsylvania, a state crucial for winning the presidential election.
If Trump maintains control of the states he won in 2020 and also wins key battleground states where he currently leads—such as Arizona (by 4.1 points), Georgia (by 4.0 points), and Nevada (by 5.3 points) per RealClearPolitics averages—and captures Pennsylvania, he would be well-positioned to regain the presidency.
Chuck Calles X (@ChuckCallesto)
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Should Trump fail to win Pennsylvania, he would need to secure a victory in Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota to offset the loss. Currently, he leads slightly in Michigan by 1.1 points and narrowly in Wisconsin by 0.1 points, but trails Biden by 2.3 points in Minnesota. Trump’s overall lead, both in Pennsylvania and nationally, has been bolstered by the attention from his hush money trial in New York. Additionally, recent polls show his increasing support among key demographics: young voters and nonwhite voters, who are shifting away from Biden’s campaign.
Two key demographic groups shift to Trump
For example, a recent survey indicated that support for Biden, often referred to as “Scranton Joe,” has significantly decreased among young voters in Pennsylvania—from 62% in 2020 to 47% at present. His support among Black and Hispanic voters in the state has also fallen, from 71% to 57% during the same period. With the election only five months away, and early voting beginning sooner, Biden faces urgent pressure to recover lost ground.
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This urgency is probably why he has proposed two debates with Trump.
